EUR/USD is ready for the weekend while merchants are preparing for the German defense bill.
- EUR/USD briefly returns to 1.0900 on a wave of titles on Friday.
- The World Trade Organization can study whether the US tariff policy of President Trump is illegal.
- The markets have a sign of relief on the risk of issuing a draft spending law, and avoiding the closure of the United States government, later on Friday.
The EUR/USD pair is a higher and recovered to 1.0900 at the time of writing this report on Friday, erasing his slow performance earlier this week. The recovery comes in the husband after the headlines appear late on Thursday. The United States Democratic Leader (United States), Chak Schumer, has announced that he is planning to vote to keep the government open, support advanced government financing measures in the House of Representatives and to end the risk of closure in the United States effectively.
Meanwhile, Canada began a complaint with a conflict in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and requested a look at the tariff applications of US President Donald Trump, which may be illegal and contradict the rules of the World Trade Organization, according to Reuters reports. This means a huge setback for President Trump’s plans before the mutual definitions that will enter into force in April.
Daily Digest Market Movers: All on Germany
- On Tuesday, the German Bondstag will be voted on the defensive spending package. If a two -thirds majority is reached on Tuesday, the spending plan will be a large elevator for the euro.
- Gold, as one of the assets of the safe haven, violated the brand of $ 3000 on Friday in a stagnation march where merchants are concerned about economic growth and definition expectations, with mutual fees in April.
- Michigan University has released its initial forecast for consumers in reading for the month of March:
- The American Consumer Feelings Index decreased less than 60 to 57.9. Miss Great Against expectations at 63.1 and from 64.7 in February.
- The inflation forecast jumped in the United States for 5 years to 3.9 %, overcoming 3.5 % in the last reading in February.
- Arrows try to clean the tone of this week. All indicators rose more than 0.50 % throughout Europe and the United States on Friday.
- The CME Fedwatch Tool provides a 97.0 % opportunity for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain interest rates unchanged in the next decision on Wednesday. The chances of lowering price rates in Mayit Stand are 32.8 %, while it shows a possibility of 78.5 % of prices lower than current levels in June.
- The return in the United States is trading for 10 years about 4.329 %, from the lowest level of approximately five months at 4.10 % printed on March 4 and after it reached the highest level in five days on Thursday.
Technical Analysis: Defensive spending key
The closure of Friday is vital to the UN/US dollar husband. From the looks on technical plans, the husband has good possibilities for closing over the decisive rising trend line (green in the graph below), which provided support on Thursday and Friday. The closure above this line may mean that the psychological level is 1.1000 can enter the cards heading to next week.
On the upper side, 1.1000 is the main level to search for. Once this level is violated, the husband enters the famous 1.1000-1.1500, as he often tends to stay for some time. The large number 1.1200, which coincides with higher levels in September and October last year, seems interesting to a summary test and a higher breach.
On the negative side, the upward trend at 1.0840 still has to provide support at the present time. If it erupted, the road is open to go to the 1.0700 area. The simple moving average for 200 days (SMA) should be about 1.0722 key for merchants who want to buy DIP.
The euro/US dollar: the daily chart
Common questions euro
The euro is the currency of the 19 European Union countries belonging to the eurozone. It is the second most traded currency in the world behind the US dollar. In 2022, it represented 31 % of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily rotation of more than $ 2.2 trillion per day. EUR/USD is the most trading currency pair in the world, which represents an estimated 30 % of all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4 %), EUR/GBP (3 %) and EUR/AUD (2 %).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the backup bank. The European Central Bank sets interest rates and runs monetary policy. The primary mandate in the European Central Bank is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary performance is to raise or reduce interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or expect higher rates – usually benefit from the euro and vice versa. The Board of Directors of the European Central Bank is making monetary policy decisions at eight times a year. Decisions are made by the heads of national banks in the eurozone and six permanent members, including the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde.
The inflation data in the euro area, measured by a coordinated index of consumer prices (HICP), is an important economist for the euro. If inflation increases more than expected, especially if it is 2 % higher than the European Central Bank’s goal, then the European Central Bank is obliged to raise interest rates to return it in control. Relatively high interest rates usually benefit compared to its euro counterparts, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to stop their money.
Data ejaculates a measurement of economics health and can affect the euro. Indicators such as GDP, manufacturing, PMIS, employment services, and consumer morale surveys can affect the trend of uniform currency. The strong economy is useful for the euro. Not only is to attract more foreign investment, but the European Central Bank may encourage interest rates, which will enhance the euro directly. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the euro is likely to decrease. Economic data of the four economies in the eurozone (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are of particular importance, because it represents 75 % of the eurozone economy.
Other important version of the euro is the commercial balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country gains from its exports and what it spends on imports during a certain period. If a country produces very absolute after exports, its currency will obtain a purely value of the additional demand created from foreign buyers who seek to buy these goods. Therefore, the positive and positive trade balance enhances the currency and vice versa to achieve a negative balance.
