The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2 % of QOQ in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024, compared to the increase of 0.2 % in the third quarter, according to the latest data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday. The market consensus was for a growth of 0.3 % in the report.
Annually, CPI enlargement in Australia decreased to 2.4 % in the fourth quarter of the previous print of 2.8 % and less than the market consensus of 2.5 %.
The RBA price index for Q4 increased by 0.5 % and 3.2 % on a quarterly and annual basis, respectively. The markets were estimated at 0.6 % QOQ and 3.3 % year -on -basis in the quarter to December.
The monthly consumer price index increased to 2.5 % year on an annual basis in December compared to 2.5 % expected and previous reading by 2.3 %.
AUD/USD reaction to consumer price index data in Australia
The Australian dollar (AUD) attracts some sellers after inflation data from Australia. AUD/USD pair loses 0.41 % a day for trading at 0.6230, at the time of the press.
Aud/USD 15 minutes graph
Australian dollar price this week
The table below shows the percentage of change in the Australian dollar (AUD) against the main currencies listed this week. The Australian dollar was the weakest against the Swiss franc.
| US dollar | euro | GBP | CAD | Aud | JPY | Nzd | Chf | |
| US dollar | 0.34 % | 0.12 % | 0.09 % | 0.63 % | -08 % | 0.46 % | -0.31 % | |
| euro | -0.34 % | -0.21 % | -0.25 % | 0.29 % | -0.42 % | 0.13 % | -64 % | |
| GBP | -0.12 % | 0.21 % | -04 % | 0.49 % | -0.21 % | 0.34 % | -0.44 % | |
| CAD | -0.09 % | 0.25 % | 0.03 % | 0.53 % | -0.17 % | 0.37 % | -0.39 % | |
| Aud | -63 % | -0.29 % | -51 % | -53 % | -0.70 % | -16 % | -0.94 % | |
| JPY | 0.10 % | 0.43 % | 0.20 % | 0.17 % | 0.71 % | 0.55 % | -0.23 % | |
| Nzd | -0.46 % | -0.13 % | -0.34 % | -37 % | 0.17 % | -0.55 % | -0.78 % | |
| Chf | 0.31 % | 0.64 % | 0.43 % | 0.39 % | 0.93 % | 0.23 % | 0.77 % |
The heat map shows the percentage changes in the main currencies against each other. The basic currency is chosen from the left column, while the quotation currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you choose the euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage offered in the box will represent EUR (Base)/JPY (quotation).
This section was published below at 21:30 GMT as an Australian inflation data.
- The Australian consumer price index is expected to be 2.5 % in December.
- Consumer price index is expected to reduce less than 3 %, as the basic numbers approach RBA.
- The Australian Reserve Bank will meet on February 18 to decide on monetary policy.
- The Australian dollar advances before declaring amid the prevailing risks.
Australia will issue new inflation data on Wednesday, and financial markets expect that price pressures will reduce at the end of 2024, which paves the way to reduce the interest rate in the Bank of Australia (RBA) when it meets in February.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will publish various inflation measures: Copy Consumer Prices (CPI) for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the monthly CPI in December, which measures annual prices over the past twelve months. The semester report includes the average consumer price index, which is the favorite RBA inflation scale.
RBA has maintained the official money price (OCR) fixed at 4.35 % since November 2023, claiming that inflation needs a “return” sustainable to its target scope of 2 % – 3 % before considering the price reduction. The last meeting of the Board of Directors was held in December, and officials claimed that they were “gaining confidence” that inflation is moving in the right direction.
However, it should be noted that RBA has a double mandate, because full workers are also part of it. However, inflation numbers will be decisive to determine whether the interest rate reduction has finally reached the Australian beaches.
What do you expect from the inflation rate numbers in Australia?
ABS is expected to reach that the monthly consumer price index increased by 2.5 % in the year to December, which is higher than 2.3 % published in November. The separation consumer price index is expected to increase by 0.3 % over a quarter of (QOQ) and 2.5 % on an annual basis (YOY) in the last quarter of 2024., it is expected to rise by 3.3 % on an annual basis in the fourth quarter, which reduces From the progress of 3.5 % published in the previous quarter.
Finally, the average RBA Middle consumer price index is expected to increase by 0.6 % of QOQ, which is the lowest annual result since mid -2011. The expected numbers will be less than the central bank’s expectations, which enhances the chances of reducing the interest rate when the board of directors meets in February.
But it is not only about inflation in the target. The country’s economic growth was at least. Australian GDP increased by 0.3 % in the third quarter of 2024 and 0.8 % since Q3 2023. Economic progress may not be part of RBA, but officials cannot ignore the effects of monetary policy on economic growth.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump became the forty -seventh president of the United States (the United States). The Republican leader pledged to impose a huge tariff on imports, which raised concerns about the costs of global trade.
Recently, Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, prompted a new global tariff for US imports that start from 2.5 % and gradually increase, according to the Financial Times on Monday. However, President Trump quickly responded by saying he wanted a lot of unified graphics. Definitions can affect global manufacturing costs, thus pushing inflation up. Time in mind, central banks may refrain from reducing interest rates.
However, Trump’s trade war against China may eventually end to Australia. The American president may pay the definitions to all the main competitors, yet the higher lever will be on Chinese goods and services. Time in mind, RBA Michel Bullock’s governor recently noticed that “if there is a big tariff in China, Chinese trade is likely to try to find other ways to find an outlet. Australia may be beneficial from that. Therefore, in fact, we may find some The methodology of Australia if it is presented in this way.
How can the consumer price index report affect AUD/USD?
The inflation numbers are, then, decisive. Reducing inflationary pressure, along with the recent comments of Bullock, will fuel the bets to reduce the RBA rate on February 18.
In general, the higher consumer price index numbers will be upward for AUD amid the constantly rushing RBA expectations. However, the opposite scenario is also valid: relief of policy makers can lead to a transformation towards a more occurrence.
With the CPI version, AUD/USD is trading around 0.6250, down for a second consecutive day.
“The AUD/USD pair acquires a dumping traction before the Australian consumer price index numbers in an environment that hates risk. The US dollar is more stable as concerns are dominated by definitions on financial councils. The additional slides are likely to be the result of inflation data As expected or less than expectations.
“The AUD/USD pair may fall towards the 0.6200 area as an immediate reaction to the news, while the downsic penetration is offered 0.6164, which is January 17. If this level surrenders, the next goal is to decrease January 13 at 0.6130. Technical readings in drawing. The daily graphic indicates a limited bullish capabilities. However, the recovery that exceeds the threshold of 0.6300 may lead to the pair test 0.6330 of the prices before the appearance of fresh sale.
Common questions about inflation
Inflation measures an increase in the price of a representative basket for goods and services. The main inflation is usually expressed as a change in percentage on a month on a monthly (illiterate) basis on an annual (annual) basis. Basic inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel that can fluctuate due to geopolitical and seasonal factors. The basic inflation is the number that economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are assigned to maintaining inflation at a controlled level, and is usually about 2 %.
Consumer price index (CPI) measures changing commodity and services basket prices over a period of time. It is usually expressed as changing a percentage on a month basis on a monthly (illiterate) basis and on an annual basis (YOY). Core CPI is the number targeted by central banks as it excludes food and flying fuel inputs. When the basic consumer price index rises above 2 %, it usually leads to high interest rates and vice versa when less than 2 % is less than 2 %. Since high interest rates are positive for the currency, high inflation usually leads to a stronger currency. The opposite is true when the inflation falls.
Although it may seem intuitive, high inflation in a country pays the value of its currency and vice versa to reduce inflation. This is because the central bank usually raises interest rates to combat higher inflation, which attracts more global capital flows from investors looking for a profitable place to enter their money.
Previously, gold was the assets that converted investors into high times of inflation because they have maintained their value, and while investors will often buy gold for their safe properties in times of extremist turmoil in the market, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put interest rates to combat them. The highest interest rates are negative for gold because it increases the costs of maintaining gold in assets that bear interest or placing money in the calculation of cash deposits. On the other hand, low inflation tends to be positive for gold because it leads to low interest rates, making the bright metal a more applicable investment alternative. The commercial balance, which is the difference between what the country earns from its exports in exchange for what it pays to its imports, is another factor that can affect the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces very required after exports, its currency will obtain a value of the excess demand created from foreign buyers who seek to buy its exports in exchange for what it spends to buy imports. Therefore, the balance of positive and positive trade enhances AUD, with the opposite effect if the commercial balance is negative. For its safe properties in times of extremist turmoil in the market, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put interest rates to combat them. The highest interest rates are negative for gold because it increases the costs of maintaining gold in assets that bear interest or placing money in the calculation of cash deposits. On the other hand, low inflation tends to be positive for gold because it leads to low interest rates, making the bright metal a more applicable investment alternative to the use of customs tariffs to support the American economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42 % of the total imports of the United States. During this period, Mexico emerged as the best source with $ 466.6 billion, according to the American Statistical Office. Thus, Trump wants to focus on these three countries when imposing definitions. It is also planned to use the revenues created by definitions to reduce personal income taxes.
Economic indicator
RBA Consumer Prices Index (YOY)
Consumer Prices Index (CPI), whose chest Australian Statistics Office On a quarterly basis, the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services obtained by family consumers are measures, YOY reading the prices in the reference quarter to the same quarter of the previous year. The broken medium is calculated, which is a measure of basic inflation, as the weighted average of 70 % of the semester change distribution of all components of the consumer price index in order to calm data from the most shift components. Reading is seen as an emerging state of the Australian dollar (AUD), while low reading is seen as declining.
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