The highest percentage of money managers in more than two decades call us “exaggerated” shares
- Bank of America’s survey includes 89 % of money managers who call “exaggerated” shares.
- The average classification was 81 %, however.
- The Dow Jones index is traded in much higher assessment than long -term average.
- Al -Jia has reached a double formation in the past three months, preaching to land.
If your wallet is sitting late, do not count your glories. A respectable survey of money managers in the US most “exaggerated” securities market announced at least since April 2001 (when the survey began to ask the question) and most likely this century.
Bank of America revealed the survey of the Director of the World Fund Fund in February this week, which is Duwa. The report studies feelings between 205 adult funds managers who collectively manage $ 482 billion of assets.
89 % of the respondents told Bofa that the US stock market is “exaggerated”. This is the largest percentage since I started survey in management almost 24 years ago.
Dow Jones Rating
Higher l DJIA Industrial Mediterranean In April 2001 it was 10,906. From there the index will collapse up to 34 % during the next 18 months to 7,197 as part of a three -year decrease. Of course, a specific event includes kidnapped planes and skyscrapers in this correction. However, only 30 % of the respondents believed that the American market was estimated in April 2001.
Quickly until 2020, and we find that February 2025 is not all this. The respondents spent most of this contract to watch the stock market as exaggerated. In fact, since the COVID epidemic began in early 2020, a number of Bofa surveys received “indifference” values of more than 80 %. Really only the 2022 bear market has seen a lot of change.
One author of the report, Michael Hartnett, a Bofa strategic expert, says the average “excessive value” consensus was 81 % of the respondents. Hartnet blames this for the “American exceptional” trade, which has seen the US shares benefit from US dollars and strong gains by the so -called wonderful 7 shares.
However, Hartnet believes this trade may reach its climax. In February, this trade was seen as the 73 % most crowded trade of FMS investors, a decrease from the highest level in 30 % of 80 % in January. “
According to data from Gurufocus.com, Download Jones is currently trading near the price ratio to profits from 27. This is much higher than an average of 20 years than 18 but a good breadth less than 34 has been reached in early 2021.
But of course, Dow Jones is more than a valuable indicator to start despite adding NVIDIA (NVDA) and Salesforce (CRM) in 2024. NASDAQ 100, known as its focus on growth and technology, is above 37 times of profits. In the vicinity with the early 2021 high -ranking.
One of the reasons for the high stock reviews mentioned in the report is that the fund managers leave a little money on the margin. The average cash reservation is 3.5 % among money managers, which reaches the lowest level in 15 years.
But the timing of a great correction is always difficult. The Federal Reserve Commission (Fed) provides one reason for pessimism. The release of Wednesday showed that the central bank is very concerned about the Trump administration’s adoption of definitions.
“Commercial contacts in a number of regions have indicated that companies will try to transfer the costs of the highest inputs of consumers arising from a possible customs tariff.”
The central bank’s pricing pressure is likely to prevent interest in reducing interest rates this year, which may frustrate investors to rely on them. Currently, the market still expects about 50 basis points of cuts in the last half of the year.
Dow Jones weekly scheme
Technologies give us more causes of pessimism. DJIA’s weekly chart shows the index, which comes out twice in a row in the area just 45,000. In both cases – late November 2024 and January 2025 – The index reached a resistance between 45050 and 45,070.
This should be considered a dual declining formation for most merchants and usually means that technical traders will expect a decline. So far, this has not been achieved in any big way. However, at least the DJIA sale will return to the support channel that extends from 41,650 to 42,100.
Another option is the simple moving average for 52 weeks (SMA) near 41,225. With the help of a news catalyst like other weak inflation, DJIA expected to support April 2024 near 38,000.
Djia weekly scheme
