The Australian dollar rises with the emergence of the US dollar before the ISM manufacturing notes
- The Australian dollar will earn a ground after the TD-Mi inflation scale, and the Chinese manufacturing data issued on Monday.
- The Caixin Manager Index in China rose to 50.8 in February from 50.1 January.
- The US dollar is fighting as inflation data in the United States of America correspond to expectations, which reduces concerns about high inflation in the United States.
The Australian dollar (AUD) suspended the six -day loss chain on Monday, backed by the weakest US dollar (USD) after issuing inflation data at PEC’s expenditures (PCE) in January on Friday. The report is in line with expectations, and relieves fears of unexpected inflation in the United States.
The TD-Mi inflation scale in Australia fell 0.2 % month in February, reflecting a 0.1 % increase in January. This represents the first decline since last August and followed the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) decision to reduce its cash price by 25 basis points to 4.1 % during the first monetary policy meeting for this year, which reflects the continued slowdown in basic inflation. However, on an annual basis, the scale increased by 2.2 %, slightly less than the previous 2.3 % increase.
Aud also receives upward support from optimistic Chinese economic data. The Purchase Manager Index in China (PMI) in China rose to 50.8 in February from 50.1 January, which exceeds the market expectations of 50.3. Looking at the role of China as a major commercial partner in Australia, the reading of the most powerful purchasing directors of the Australian dollar.
However, AUD’s bullish trend can be limited to escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. During the weekend, US President Donald Trump announced an additional 10 % tariff on Chinese imports that start on Tuesday, which increased the 10 % tariff imposed last month. On Thursday, Trump stated on the social truth that the 25 % definitions on Canadian and Mexican goods will be valid on March 4.
The Australian dollar estimates concerns about the ease of inflation in the unexpected United States
- The US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the dollar for six main currencies, weakens three consecutive sessions of gains, which hovering about 107.30 at the time of writing this report. The negative aspect of Greenback can be limited with the improvement of American cabinet revenues, as cabinet revenue for two years and 10 years currently 4.02 % and 4.24 %, respectively.
- The US PCE inflation report achieved expectations, as the monthly PCE holds 0.3 %. Core PCE increased to 0.3 % a little from 0.2 % in December, while PCE reached the annual title 2.6 %, as it exceeded some expectations but unchanged from the number of December. Core PCE fell to 2.6 %, a decrease from 2.9 % revised in December.
- Tensions between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian leader Folodimir Zelinski escalated during the peace agreement negotiations. Zelenskyy was expected to sign an agreement that gives the United States the largest access to rare land minerals in Ukraine and participated in a joint press conference, but the plan was abandoned after a hot exchange between leaders to the media. In the aftermath of the confrontation, in which Trump expressed his contempt, senior advisers asked Zelinski to leave the White House.
- President Trump signed a memorandum on Friday to direct the Foreign Investment Committee in the United States (CFIUS) to reduce Chinese investments in the strategic sectors. Reuters cited a White House official, saying that the National Security Memorandum is seeking to encourage foreign investment while protecting US national security interests from possible threats represented by foreign opponents such as China.
- The S & P Global Australia Manufacturing Managers (PMI) was reviewed to 50.4 in February of a preliminary estimate of 50.6 but it remained over 50.2 January. This represents the second consecutive month of improvement in manufacturing conditions and the strongest growth since February 2023.
- The Chinese Nbs Manufacturer Index improved to 50.2 in February 49.1 before. This number came stronger than the expected 49.9. Meanwhile, NBS’s non -manufactured purchasing managers rose to 50.4 in February 50.2 in January, overcoming 50.3.
- According to the Wall Street Journal report on the Future of the Australian dollar from the Australian Bank of the Australian Bank (CBA), Trump’s increasing trade war risks have become a great concern. China’s response to these commercial threats will be a major factor in forming the future performance of AUD.
Australian dollar tests 0.6200 support amid the prevailing bias
AUD/USD pair is traded around 0.6220 on Monday. Daily graph analysis indicates that the husband remains under pressure, as it trades without the averages of luxury movement for nine and 14 days (EMAS), which indicates twice the momentum in the short term. In addition, the 24 -day relative index (RSI) is still less than 50 years, which enhances the downside.
On the negative side, the AUD/USD pair currently tests the main support at the psychological level of 0.6200. The break can lead to a below this level to pay the price about 0.6087, which is its lowest point since April 2020, registered on February 3.
The initial resistance in EMA is seen for nine days from 0.6280, followed by EMA for 14 days at 0.6290. The decisive break above these levels may boost the short -term momentum, which may lead to a re -test of the highest level in three months at 0.6408, on February 21.
Aud/USD: Daily Chart
US dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage of change in the US dollar (USD) against the main currencies listed today. The US dollar was the strongest against the Canadian dollar.
| US dollar | euro | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | Nzd | Chf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar | -0.28 % | -0.15 % | -08 % | 0.00 % | -0.15 % | -01 % | -06 % | |
| euro | 0.28 % | 0.02 % | -02 % | 0.10 % | 0.04 % | 0.08 % | 0.06 % | |
| GBP | 0.15 % | -02 % | 0.08 % | 0.08 % | 0.01 % | 0.07 % | 0.03 % | |
| JPY | 0.08 % | 0.02 % | -08 % | 0.30 % | -02 % | 0.12 % | 0.02 % | |
| CAD | -0.00 % | -0.10 % | -08 % | -0.30 % | 0.00 % | -02 % | -05 % | |
| Aud | 0.15 % | -04 % | -01 % | 0.02 % | 0.00 % | 0.05 % | 0.02 % | |
| Nzd | 0.01 % | -08 % | -07 % | -0.12 % | 0.02 % | -05 % | -04 % | |
| Chf | 0.06 % | -06 % | -0.03 % | -02 % | 0.05 % | -02 % | 0.04 % |
The heat map shows the percentage changes in the main currencies against each other. The basic currency is chosen from the left column, while the quotation currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you choose the US dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage offered in the box will represent the USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Questions and answers in Australian dollars
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a resource -rich country, the other main engine is the largest export price, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, the largest commercial partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, the rate of growth and commercial balance. Market morale-whether investors are eating more risky assets (risk) or searching for safe materials (risk)-is also a worker, with positive risks for AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) affects the Australian dollar (AUD) by determining the level of interest rates that Australian banks can persuade each other. This affects the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3 % by setting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates are supported compared to other main central banks, and relatively low vice versa. RBA can also use and tighten quantitative dilution to influence credit conditions, with previous AUD negative and positive to AUD.
China is the largest commercial partner in Australia, so the health of the Chinese economy is a major impact on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy does a good job, it buys more raw materials, commodities and services from Australia, raising the demand for AUD, and raising its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy does not grow at the speed available. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, they often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its wives.
Iron Ore is the largest export in Australia, as it represents 118 billion dollars annually according to data from 2021, with China as its main destination. Therefore, the price of iron ore can be an engine for the Australian dollar. In general, if the price of iron ore rises, the AUD also rises, as the total demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of iron ore decreases. Iron ore prices also tend to increase the possibility of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country gains from its exports in exchange for what it pays to its imports is another factor that can affect the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces very required after exports, its currency will obtain a value of the excess demand created from foreign buyers who seek to buy its exports in exchange for what it spends to buy imports. Therefore, the positive net trade balance enhances AUD, with the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.
