- AUD/USD is traded on the 0.6300 area after the PCE report in the United States delivered any big surprises.
- The federal reserve is still cautious; Continue concerns of customs tariffs and inflation expectations to control the interest of the market.
- Technically, the declining pressure continues, as resistance indicators appear near the average movement in the short term.
The Australian dollar (AUD) remains without a trend during the American session on Friday, as AUD/USD hovers around the area of 0.6300. The PC PSV has failed to generate a major reaction in the market, as the numbers are in line with expectations except for the basic PCE, which were slightly higher than expectations. The Australian has struggled to obtain a ground despite the weak demand for the US dollar, as caution continued on trade tensions and improvisation of the unconfirmed policy of the Federal Reserve.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar Fixed after PCE printing in the United States
- The AUD/USD continued in the range around the 0.6300 area after the release of PCE inflation data in February, which came widely with market expectations.
- The head of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Dali reiterated that price cuts are probably in 2025, but stressed the need for patience with the development of inflation and definitions.
- Feelings of the broader risk were reduced by the fresh US tariff and the deadline that is looming on April 2 for mutual trade measures.
- The Australian dollar remained weak, while softening the appetite risk and demand for safe assets-such as gold-to the highest level ever.
- The markets continue to expect a rate of the Federal Reserve at a later time this year, but bets in the short term are still cautious amid mixed economic signals.
- Amal has helped obtain additional economic motivation from China in reducing losses in Australian, given the strong export links in Australia with the Chinese market.
- Despite the cautious federal reserve position, the US dollar was lacking in condemnation as merchants diverted the focus towards total risks and geopolitical developments.
- The US dollar index remains covered with less than the main resistance of 105.00, as techniques indicate the extent -related range in the short term.
- The location of the investor is still short on the AUD, while building the hillbacks amid long global trade and uncertainty in inflation.
Technical analysis
The AUD/USD pair has struggled to find traction after PCE data, and remains closed in a narrow range around the 0.6300 area. While the inflation report failed to surprise, the husband still declines modestly, reflecting the continuous declining feelings. The RSI (RSI) index has decreased in the lower neutral scope, while the average range of rapprochement (MACD) printed a fresh red tape, which enhances negative risks. Dangerous signals from the indicators of the power of the bull bear have also emerged. The moving averages work in the short term for 10 days and 20 days as an immediate resistance, while SMAS for 100 days and 200 days are still firm. The main support levels are located at 0.6295 and 0.6294, while the resistance is indicated at 0.6297 and 0.6303. Without a decisive break, the husband is likely to remain confined to this monotheism next week.
Questions and answers in Australian dollars
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a resource -rich country, the other main engine is the largest export price, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, the largest commercial partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, the rate of growth and commercial balance. Market morale-whether investors are eating more risky assets (risk) or searching for safe materials (risk)-is also a worker, with positive risks for AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) affects the Australian dollar (AUD) by determining the level of interest rates that Australian banks can persuade each other. This affects the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3 % by setting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates are supported compared to other main central banks, and relatively low vice versa. RBA can also use and tighten quantitative dilution to influence credit conditions, with previous AUD negative and positive to AUD.
China is the largest commercial partner in Australia, so the health of the Chinese economy is a major impact on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy does a good job, it buys more raw materials, commodities and services from Australia, raising the demand for AUD, and raising its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy does not grow at the speed available. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, they often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its wives.
Iron Ore is the largest export in Australia, as it represents 118 billion dollars annually according to data from 2021, with China as its main destination. Therefore, the price of iron ore can be an engine for the Australian dollar. In general, if the price of iron ore rises, the AUD also rises, as the total demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of iron ore decreases. Iron ore prices also tend to increase the possibility of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country gains from its exports in exchange for what it pays to its imports is another factor that can affect the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces very required after exports, its currency will obtain a value of the excess demand created from foreign buyers who seek to buy its exports in exchange for what it spends to buy imports. Therefore, the positive net trade balance enhances AUD, with the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.
