After such a historic trajectory in the past couple of years, it was only a matter of time before predictions of a Bitcoin bear market dominated cryptocurrency discussions. Many pundits and experts have shared when they believe the digital asset market will reach the top of its cycle and possibly see a reversal.
While the public is still somewhat optimistic about the potential of various cryptocurrencies, a market move in the opposite direction would not be surprising. A popular cryptocurrency trader on the social media platform echoed similar sentiments, providing a possible timing for the arrival of a cryptocurrency bear market.
Why could a bear market start in April?
In a January 25 post on the X platform, prominent cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez said subscriber His “unpopular opinion” on Bitcoin’s current bull cycle and its possible end. According to the analyst, the bear market could start in about three months.
The reason behind this prediction is the historical performance of Bitcoin price across different halving cycles. The Bitcoin halving, an event that occurs approximately every four years, tightens the supply of Bitcoin by cutting the mining reward by half.
As we saw in 2024 – the last halving year, the halving event has historically been a precursor to significant price growth. However, post-halving rallies are usually followed by significant profit taking, leading to market consolidation and a bear market.
Source: Ali_charts/X
From a historical perspective, approximately 276 days after the halving event, it has proven to be pivotal in the course of the Bitcoin market. Specifically, Bitcoin saw significant price growth after exceeding 276 days in the 2012-2016 halving cycle.
However, the Bitcoin market saw a shift in sentiment and a sharp market decline 367 days after the halving – 91 days after 276 days. If this historical pattern continues, investors could see a bear market begin sometime in late April.
As of this writing, Bitcoin’s price is just below $105,000, reflecting the lack of significant movement in the past day.
Retail interest on the rise?
While historical price data is an effective way to analyze the path of the cycle, on-chain data is another way that sheds light on cyclical price movements. One such data is retail interest in Bitcoin, which measures small investor demand for the leading cryptocurrency.
Related Reading: MicroStrategy Could Face Tax Issues Over $19 Billion in Unrealized Bitcoin Gains: Report
Typically, demand from retail investors is often associated with the peak euphoria phase. “Looking back over previous cycles, the last two big spikes in searches for “how to buy cryptocurrencies” occurred when Bitcoin was purchased. It was around $65,000 in May 2021 and $69,000 in November 2021 – right at the market high. Martinez said in a separate post on X.
Source: Ali_charts/X
As shown in the chart above, it appears that the “interest over time” indicator will rise again in 2025. This could be a signal of an impending top for the cryptocurrency market.
The price of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
