Patrick Iverson
Fox sports betting analyst
The NFL Divisional Round odds provide interesting options for bettors on all four games. But there’s no denying that a lot of eyeballs — and money — will be in the weekend-concluding showdown between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills.
It’s a battle between top MVP candidates in Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Voting is already closed for this award, but punters cast their votes by betting on Sunday night’s contest.
“These are the top two teams in our power rankings. It’s really interesting to see the market treat these two teams as the best in the league. We have them both better than the Chiefs,” said Joey, head of soccer merchandising at Caesars Sports. Wiesel said.
And better than the No. 1 seed in the NFC Detroit Lions.
Oddsmakers and smart bettors offer their take on Ravens vs. Bills and the rest of the games, as we dive into betting on the NFL Divisional Round.
Support Baltimore
The Buffalo Caesars opened as a 1.5-point home favorite, then saw sharp action at Baltimore +1.5 and +1. So, as of Wednesday night, the point spread is Baltimore -1.
The Bills are 14-4 straight up (SU) and 11-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Ravens are 13-5 SU/11-6-1 ATS.
“The biggest move we’ve seen this week so far is with Ravens-Bills, and that’s obviously the biggest game of the week,” Wiesel said of Sunday’s 6:30 PM ET kickoff. “It’s been all the Ravens’ money coming in so far. The initial movement of the line was from a sharp play, going through zero.”
The Ravens-Bills overall is still at 51.5, but early bettors have an opinion.
“There’s more money in below 51.5. We know it’s going to be cold,” Wiesel said.
Temperatures are expected to be at their best Sunday night, with 10-15 mph winds making things worse.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills – The biggest playoff game in the AFC
NFL Rocks on Fox
FOX gets an engaging matchup on Saturday night, at 8 p.m. ET. Rising star Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders visit the very popular Lions and their coach, Dan Campbell.
The Lions are coming off their bye week, after a regular season in which they were not only great on the field, but also in the betting window. Detroit is 15-2 SU/12-5-1 ATS, the second-best spread coverage mark in the NFL.
The Leaders (13-5 SU/11-6-1 ATS) hope to ride Daniels’ arm and legs to cause a major upset. The Caesars opened the Lions as 8.5-point home favorites and quickly moved to -9.5 early this week.
Wiesel said Washington was already taking further action early on. But this will change. The general betting public has been accumulating on Detroit for 2.5 seasons now, with the Lions going 37-10 SU/35-11-1 ATS in their last 47 games.
“The Lions have had a steady stream of events all season, and I don’t think that will change this weekend,” Wiesel said.
It can be said that the total is just as interesting as the point spread in this game. At 55.5, this is the highest total in NFL Divisional Round odds.
“We’re seeing a big divide right now,” Wiesel said Wednesday. “But that will change on match day. The fans will bet on the finish. We will definitely see an onslaught of action on the finish.”
NFL sharp side
With only four games on the list in the NFL playoff odds, professional bettor Randy McKay doesn’t have much to choose from. But he came with three plays:
First up is Game 1, a meeting on Saturday at 4:30 PM ET between the top-seeded Chiefs and Houston Texans. The Chiefs are 8.5-point home favorites.
Besides last week’s bye, KC also rested a lot of key players in a 38-0 Week 18 loss to Denver. MacKay said this takes into account his +8.5 bet on Texas.
“It’s rust versus play. Will KC be ready after sitting out for 24 days?” McKay said. “Houston may have the best defense remaining in the playoffs. I see a close game.”
The last time the Chiefs gave it their all was in a 29-10 win on Christmas Day in Pittsburgh.
McKay also bet the under-44.5 on the Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles.
“It’s a tough trip for the Rams, coming off their win Monday night,” McKay said, before pointing to the Week 12 matchup in Los Angeles between these two teams. “That game was 37-20 Eagles. I don’t see that this time, with two teams that like to run the ball.”
Finally, McKay entered the Ravens vs. Bills, taking Baltimore as their pick. In this case, McKay believes the regular season game is more important. Baltimore earned a 35-10 win at home over Buffalo in Week 4.
“Baltimore won this game handily on Sunday Night Football. I see this as another scenario where the Bills defense is going to have trouble taking on Baltimore’s running offense, with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry,” McKay said.
Understanding the Eagles’ offensive struggles
The main bet deflects money
As stated above, Texans vs. Chiefs NFL Divisional Round odds market with kickoff Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET. Kansas City (15-2 SU/8-9 ATS) earned a bye last weekend, while Houston (11-7 SU/12-6 ATS) somewhat surprised the LA Chargers 32-12 as a home underdog By 2.5 points.
The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point favorites at home and are up to -8.5 at Caesars heading into the weekend.
“So far, the action has been pretty balanced. But we had a bigger bet on the Texas Nationals, which is kind of a money skew,” Wiesel said, pointing to a $110,000 Texas +8 bet. “And there are some Under money games as well. Five of the six Wild Card games went Under, so that will be fresh in people’s minds.”
“Plus, in the playoffs, the early money tends to be on the bottom.”
Caesars opened the total at 42.5 and dropped to 41.5.
Philly Finance
Rams vs. Eagles is the opener on Sunday, at 3 p.m. ET. Caesars is not far behind the Eagles as a 6-point favorite at home.
“Right now, we’re mostly seeing Eagles money. They’re the favorites, they’ve been a consistent team. So it’s not surprising to see the Eagles play,” Wiesel said.
Philly is 15-3 SU and 12-5 ATS as well, while Los Angeles is 11-7 SU/10-8 ATS. The Rams are at +222 on the moneyline to pull off the outright upset, which Feazel believes will be attractive to some bettors.
“Our potential need is for the Eagles to win but not on coverage,” he said.
I like big bets and I can’t lie
As noted above, Cesar bet $110,000 on the Texans +8 vs. the Chiefs. If Houston loses by 7 or less, the bettor will receive a profit of $100,000 ($210,000 total payout).
Cesar also bet on the biggest “dog of the week”. One customer placed $110,000 on Commanders +9.5, also for a potential profit of $100,000 (total payout $210,000).
There are also two notable Super Bowl bets and an AFC futures bet held by Caesars:
- $150,000 + $440 for winning the Super Bowl. If Detroit goes this far, the bettor wins $660,000 ($810,000 total payout).
- $100,000 Ravens +850 to win the Super Bowl. The Baltimore tournament will net this client a massive win of $850,000 ($950,000 total payout).
- $100,000 + $200 for winning the AFC Cup. If Kansas City just reached the Super Bowl, the bettor would receive a profit of $200,000 ($300,000 total payout).
Last Sunday, shortly before the Eagles’ 22-10 win over the Packers, a Borgata Sports customer in Atlantic City dropped a pair of matched bets:
- $50,000 for Eagles +325 to win the NFC
- $50,000 for Eagles +700 to win the Super Bowl
If Philadelphia can cash these two tickets, the bettor will receive a profit of more than half a million dollars, worth $512,500 (total payout of $612,500).
But if this bettor can get an NFC bet, he will cover both bets. The Eagles’ NFC title will net $162,500 (total payout of $212,500).
It’s going to be an interesting few weeks for this client.
Patrick Iverson is the sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and chief reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished national sports betting journalist. He resides in Las Vegas, where he enjoys playing golf in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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