It will be a Ravens vs. The Bills are a kaiju battle between two of the NFL’s most terrifying monster offenses
Usually, I spend this section talking about a specific match. What one side of the ball has to do with the other side, or the thing I’m watching. However, this kaiju battle between two of the best strikers in football actually reminds me of a quote from one of the world’s greatest writers, Norman Osborn.
The Battle of the Titans between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills is considered the pinnacle of bullpen in the NFL, a matchup between two teams that transformed their offenses to become more physical and grounded en route to massive success in the NFL ā oh yeah, and help from Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, too. These two crimes are very similar in their goals, but it is the way they deal with them that differs between the two paths.
The Baltimore Ravens are the pinnacle of physical football. With three tight ends who can play at any given time, a 300-pound linebacker in Patrick Ricard and a 380-pound guard in Daniel Vallely, he blocks 250 pounds. Gull God Running back in Derrick Henry. Baltimore loves to condense its sets, run the power play, and is one of the best teams in the NFL. In those gaps, Henry ranks second in the NFL in EPA per carry behind Saquon Barkley, and has a ridiculous 59.1% success rate on those carries. This is also while facing the largest number of defenders in the penalty area. You He knows The Ravens will try to hit you hard, but then the problem is stopping them. I like the way they use RB Patrick Ricard in an impact move, bringing him through the formation to get the ball rolling, before Faalele comes on.
So, to count: As a defender, you have to hit the 300-pound Rijkaard and the 380-pound Valleli before you even have a chance to try to hit Henry. Freaking good luck.
They can capitalize on their leverage through their counter game, which they pulled off against Pittsburgh. You can see how Patrick Quinn was so excited to try to go over the top of this round thinking the down blocks were coming from his right, but they switched it up and made a big play when he went over it.
Now, just because the Ravens have a heavier staff doesn’t mean they can’t get rid of him. Their three tight ends can be factors in the passing game now that Charlie Kullar is back, and the Ravens want to attack the field while having 22 personnel. Baltimore has a 0.42 EPA per game. Jackson has an average throw depth of 8.4 yards from 22 personnel, and offensive coordinator Todd Monken does a good job of building throws to every part of the field, attacking with TEs Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews (who was impressive in his end of the season). This throw from Week 4 against the Bills stands out not only in execution, but in how both teams attack each other. The Ravens run a pretty sail concept with the prospect of splitting off the line and Andrews on it, but the Bills are there in their core personnel. Lamar sets up the layup and the Ravens get an explosive.
The Bills are actually very good against 21 personnel, allowing -0.14 EPA per game. I think this is because it allows them to continue to play nickel against him, with cornerback Taron Johnson down the field. Johnson, along with LBs Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard, missed the Ravens’ first game, so I’m curious if they’ll try to play their nickel against the Ravens’ bigger personnel. The Bills are not a gap control team. Against offenses that play a high number of 21 or 22, they try to sell against the run, bringing too many numbers to the box so that the run game doesn’t have any space. Against this play by the Broncos, it is notable how they defended this play that resulted in a three-yard gain. Movement brings Johnson into the box, but they spin S Damar Hamelin into the box late to get the numbers back. Johnson hits a FB, but Ed Oliver is able to eat a double team, allowing Bernard to move freely. This is not a gap, but how noticeable the levers are pulled.
It’s worth noting that despite being very good against 21, the Bills are giving up 0.26 EPA per game against 22 personnel and 0.52 EPA per pass play against them. Part of the reason this number is so high is because they are forced to have three players on the field in their starting lineup. Do they play that card against Baltimore and pray they don’t shoot explosive passes? Or are they playing Johnson and hoping they don’t give up Derrick Henry’s lightning bolt?
Flipping it to the bank, the Bills’ offense went from being a spread-and-shredded offense to a run-through MF’ers facing offense, and they took advantage of it. Despite not throwing the ball as much in neutral situations, they have managed to have a higher EPA per game than ever before. It’s actually very beneficial to run that damn ball, no matter what the reports may say.
The Bills’ neutral passer rating is 61.5% in 2022. It’s down 10 points this season, while their EPA per game has gone from 0.111 to 0.186. Being complimentary and only asking your mutant QB to be a mutant when needed is a good thing!
ā JP Acosta (@acosta32_jp) January 14, 2025
Where they’ve been most destructive is when they have a huge huddle with OL Alec Anderson. The Bills use their 6 OL package more than any team in the NFL, and they’ve come out of it devastatingly. He’s averaging five yards per carry on this look and 0.05 EPA per play, running people into submission. They can have him close down the rim on layups, like this rep against the Broncos:
Or have him in an explosive move as a puller on the YY Counter (basically the same as bringing in other linemen, but calling him a tight end is funnier):
With Anderson on the field, the Bills can make big, mash teams, but they can also be explosive throwing the ball out of the park as well. They can put Anderson in different positions, and use him as extra protection for Josh Allen to throw the ball down the field. This positions teams on their base defense, where the Bills can win their chess match as well.
The Ravens have one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL, largely due to the personnel they have on the offensive line. Instead of trying to shoot gaps and penetrate, they have 340-pound Travis Jones and 345-pound Michael Pierce up front to control the gaps. This allows for the flow of Roquan Smith and others at the second level. When you can have Jones playing like that up front and Broderick Washington controlling the gaps, it allows Roquan Smith to play freely and end that two-man run.
Note where LB Malik Harrison is. In these heavy packages, Harrison is on the edge for the Ravens, as he has the thickness of a defensive lineman, but can be a coverage piece as well. I say that, but I’m not sure if the Ravens want him much in pass coverage. Although he is an off-ball LB next to Smith, he has been used frequently as an extra on blitzes, taking him away from many coverage responsibilities. If the Bills want to attack in the passing game