Gold drowns 3 % per week as commercial policies, and the recession is afraid of the US dollar rally
- Gold decreases more than 1 % on Friday with the US dollar strengthening, reaching the top 10 days in 107.66.
- XAU/USD decreases to $ 2,845 with a rise in stakes in the Federal Reserve rate
- Trump confirms 25 % definitions on Mexico and Canada, which leads to uncertainty in the market.
- FED is expected to reduce prices by 70 basis points in 2025 with the drop of the first cut in June.
Gold extended its losses on Friday, a decrease of more than 1 % and more than 3 % per week. The US dollar rose to a peak for ten days 107.66 amid fears of commercial policies in the United States (the United States) and the data that sparked recession. Xau/USD is trading $ 2,845 after reaching a daily peak of $ 2,885.
According to US President Donald Trump, a 25 % tariff will be applied to Mexican and Canadian products next week on March 4. The issuance of the Federal Reserve Favorite Influence Index (FERED) and the basic personal consumption index (PCE) indicated that inflation continued to advance towards the Federal Reserve goal by 2 %.
The expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to reduce policy after data. According to Prime Market Terminal, the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates by 70 basis points this year, as investors expect the first interest reduction in June.
ATLANTA FED GDPNOWOW Estimation has also been updated to Q1 2025. The model shows that the economy will diminish from 2.3 % expansion to -1.5 %. After the data, the US Treasury returns decreased for 10 years, three basis points, and the US dollar (USD) advanced recession problems.
Meanwhile, some loudspeakers feeding the wires crossed. Beth Hamak of Cleveland Virus said that the increase in the rate of height is not on cards, and the impact of commercial policies on monetary policy and the economy remains uncertain.
Digest Market Mark: The price of gold is dropped as waving in the stagnation of the United States
- The main PCE in the United States increased by 0.3 % from December and increased by 2.6 % on an annual basis, at an estimate, a decrease in an increase of 2.8 % in December.
- The main title PC jumped by 2.5 % on an annual basis as expected, indulging from 2.6 %, and remained unchanged each month by 0.3 %, as expected.
- Meanwhile, merchants continued to digest the tariff speech of US President Donald Trump. 25 % of the customs tariffs on Mexico and Canada said it will start next week, along with an additional 10 % in China.
- Treasury bonds in the United States for 10 years are 4.229 %, which limits the low price of alloys. A real yield in the United States, as measured in the return on securities protected for treasury enlargement in the United States for a period of 10 years (TIPS), the edge is less than five BV to 1.853 %.
- Last week, Goldman Sachs reviewed the price of gold price to $ 3100 by the end of 2025.
Technical expectations Xau/USD: Gold extends losers under $ 2,850
Gold prices are recorded in successive Hubudian candles, a sign that merchants reserve profits before the weekend and sell their governorates at the end of the month. Once Xau/USD decreased to less than 2900 dollars, it extended a decrease of about 2832 dollars, but the daily closure that exceeds 2,850 will keep buyers hope to rise in prices.
In this result, the first resistance of Xau/USD will be a sign of $ 2900, before YTD, which is $ 2,956. Other than that, the first support for Gold will be 2800 dollars, followed by October 31 PEAK at $ 2,790 and average simple movement for 50 days (SMA) at $ 2,770.
Common Gold questions
Gold played a major role in human history, as it was widely used as a store for value and exchange. Currently, regardless of its brilliance and use of jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe asset, which means it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against currency decline because it does not depend on any specific source or government.
Central banks are the largest gold holders. In their goal to support their currencies at troubled times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy gold to improve the powerful power and currency. High gold reserves can be a source of confidence to the dissolved country. Central banks added 1136 tons of gold worth $ 70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to the data of the Golden Golden Council. This is the highest annual purchase since the start of the records. Central banks of emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey increase their gold reserves.
Gold has a counter -relationship with the US dollar and the United States Treasury, which is one of the main reserves and safe assets. When the dollar decreases, gold tends to rise, allowing investors and central banks to diversify their assets at turbulent times. Gold is inversely associated with the origins of the risk. The assembly in the stock market weakens the price of gold, while sales in the most dangerous markets tend to prefer precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of deep stagnation can escalate the price of gold due to its safe situation. As a lower asset than the return, gold tends to rise with low interest rates, while the high cost of money usually reaches the yellow metal. However, most moves depend on how the US dollar (USD) is behaved as the original is priced in dollars (Xau/USD). The strong dollar tends to maintain the price of gold -controlled gold, while the weakest dollar is likely to increase the price of gold.
