Does Imran Khan’s conviction threaten PTI’s negotiations with the Pakistani government? | imran khan news

Islamabad, Pakistan – When Omar Ayub Khan, the opposition leader and member of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, presented the party’s charter of demands to Ayaz Sadiq, the speaker of the country’s National Assembly, on Thursday, it looked as if the long-standing impasse between the government and the country’s most popular party might finally be resolved.

However, just 24 hours later, the accountability court sentenced Imran Khan, former prime minister and founder of the PTI movement, to 14 years in prison for abuse of power and corruption.

The two sides began negotiations late last year on several controversial issues, including the release of jailed PTI leaders – whom the party describes as “political prisoners” – and addressing alleged electoral fraud in last year’s controversial elections.

So far, three rounds of talks have been held, moderated by National Assembly Speaker Sadiq, with PTI presenting its demand charter at the last meeting.

The government is expected to respond to these demands within seven days. However, Khan’s conviction has reignited fears of a possible return to the political turmoil of the past three years, plunging Pakistan once again into chaos as the country grapples with security and economic crises.

Asia Riaz, joint director of the Pakistan Institute for Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT), an independent think tank, stressed the importance of continuing the dialogue.

“Talks aimed at meaningful results, for the sake of the country, must continue,” she told Al Jazeera.

“Both sides, the establishment-backed government and the PTI, may revert to pressure and agitation tactics, respectively. This would lead to chaos and uncertainty, but ultimately, they will have to return to the negotiating table,” Riaz added.

Once a favourite, now an outcast

Imran Khan was ousted in April 2022 through a parliamentary vote of no confidence. He alleged a conspiracy between the powerful Pakistani army, his political opponents, and the United States to remove him from power.

The army, considered the most influential power broker in Pakistan, has ruled the country directly for nearly three of the 76 years since independence. Although no prime minister in Pakistan’s history has completed his term, three of the four military dictators ruled for nearly a decade each.

Khan, who was previously thought to have the support of the military, rose to power in August 2018 before losing popularity.

Both the United States and the military have denied his accusations, but his ouster led to a major crackdown on the Tehreek-e-Insaf party, with Khan leading many long marches and protests against the establishment, as the military is called in Pakistan.

Matters came to a head on May 9, 2023, when Khan was briefly detained in the Al Qadir Fund case – the corruption case in which Khan was convicted on Friday.

His release within two days did not calm the unrest as PTI supporters swept across the country, targeting public buildings, offices and military installations, including the army headquarters in Rawalpindi.

Thousands of PTI members were arrested, more than 100 of them were tried under military laws, and more than 80 of them were sentenced to prison terms ranging from three to ten years. Khan also faces charges of incitement to rebellion and “terrorism” in connection with those events.

Negotiating challenges

Despite setbacks, including Khan’s arrest in August 2023 and legal hurdles to PTI’s participation in the elections, the party’s candidates secured the largest number of seats in the February elections.

But with Khan behind bars, the PTI leadership organized several protests in Islamabad, to pressure Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government to release him.

In November, PTI launched a march to Islamabad, calling it a “last call.” Clashes with law enforcement led to the dispersal of the march, and PTI claimed that at least 12 of its workers were killed, a number denied by the government.

In its written set of demands, the PTI appeared to be backing down from its insistence on reversing the election results.

But the party urged the government to form two separate investigation teams, with a mandate to investigate the events of May 9, 2023, and November 26 – the day of the march to Islamabad – last year. It also continued to press for the release of “political prisoners.”

Abu Dhar Salman Niazi, member of the PTI’s core committee, explained the party’s position.

“We are not asking for executive orders to release people. We demand an end to judicial interference. “If someone is released on bail, he should not be arrested in a new case immediately afterwards,” Niazi told Al Jazeera.

Niazi added that negotiations will continue, noting that the current demands are just the beginning.

The government has had the opportunity to take action on these soft demands. He added: “We have other demands to move forward, but this is just the beginning, and we want to see government action to begin these investigations into the incidents of May 9 and November 26.”

Aqeel Malik, the government’s legal affairs spokesman, said he remained optimistic about the talks continuing, despite Khan’s conviction.

“Court proceedings and dialogue are two separate matters. We have seven days to respond to PTI’s demands, and the Prime Minister has already formed a team to evaluate them.”

Reconciliation or stagnation?

Some analysts believe that the Tehreek-e-Insaf’s demands represent a step back and provide the government with an opportunity for reconciliation.

Ahmed Ijaz, an Islamabad-based political analyst, noted that PTI’s dismissal of grievances over the February 2024 elections could facilitate negotiations.

“This allows the government to position itself as working for stability,” Ijaz said.

On the other hand, political commentator Fahad Hussain said that the PTI’s demands seem “somewhat impractical” at this stage.

“The two commissions they are seeking are similar to an indictment, and many of the related matters are already in court,” Hussein told Al Jazeera.

Malik, the government’s legal spokesman, stressed the need for clarity in PTI’s demands.

“For example, PTI says that political prisoners should be released, but it has never given us any list of whom they mean. It seems to be endless, including people who participated in the events of May 9 or November 26. He added: “So, I think this is at a very early stage, but we have seven days to work on it.”

“Positive development”

Over the past three years, Khan has repeatedly accused the army, especially Army Chief General Syed Asim Munir, of being responsible for his party’s plight.

Although the military establishment insists that political negotiations are not its domain, a recent meeting between current PTI chief Gohar Ali Khan (no relation to Imran Khan) and Munir in Peshawar raised eyebrows.

PTI hailed the meeting as a “positive development” and claimed that he made demands on Munir. But military sources said that the meeting focused only on Security of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is a province ruled by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party and is located on the border with Afghanistan. It has witnessed a series of attacks that Pakistan blames on armed groups seeking shelter in Afghanistan.

But government officials, who are also part of the negotiating team, criticized the “politicization” of the meeting with the army chief.

Senator Irfan Siddiqui stressed in a press conference in Islamabad on Thursday that “there are no direct talks taking place outside the government negotiating team.”

However, Ijaz, an Islamabad-based analyst, saw the meeting as important.

“If dialogue starts with the army, the cases and convictions against Khan will become irrelevant,” he said.

The road ahead

But analysts warn that mistrust between PTI, the government and the military could derail the talks.

PTI’s Niazi says the consequences of this will leave the party with no other option but to resume its aggressive stance and enter into a state of agitation once again.

“What other choice do you think we have, besides going back to the streets and protesting? We are trying to conduct negotiations keeping in mind the greater good of the country and the public, but the burden falls on the government. “They have to show a bigger role to make the dialogue successful,” the Lahore-based PTI leader said.

However, Hussain, who is based in Islamabad, said the only hope that could change things “dramatically” in Pakistan were signals from Washington, D.C., where Donald Trump is expected to be sworn in as president on Monday.

“If the Donald Trump administration intervenes, it may help the PTI movement. Otherwise, the party’s options appear to have been exhausted.”