On Wednesday night, the two No. 1 seeds in the NBA went head-to-head in Cleveland, Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell and the Cleveland Cavaliers came out on top with a seven-point win over the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The win snapped OKC’s 15-game winning streak, extending the Cavaliers’ winning streak to 11 games in the process. Cleveland is now off to a 32-4 start — on pace for more than 70 wins — and has a 5.5-game lead over the defending champion Boston Celtics for first place in the East.
Despite that, and the fact that the Cavaliers knocked off a title contender on Wednesday, they are on pace to win the NBA Finals by +1,000 points — the fourth-best odds in the league.
Now, that’s a big jump from before the 2024-25 season began, but with Cleveland looking at a very strong path to the best record in the East — and possibly the NBA — it’s surprising that both Boston (+275) and New York (+950) are ahead of Cleveland. In possibilities.
Here’s a complete look at the NBA championship odds as we approach the halfway point in the 2024-25 season.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yes, the Cavaliers have a great chance to win the title. However, they are still undervalued at this current price given the potential path they could take in the playoffs as a No. 1 seed.
The East is so loaded that Cleveland, Boston and New York clearly look like the top teams. Orlando has an elite defense and could be agile once Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are healthy, but those injuries have moved them 11 games behind the Cavaliers in the standings.
The young Magic and the veteran Milwaukee Bucks currently appear to be ready for the No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup in the East, but both teams have their flaws. Orlando is an anemic offense even when healthy, ranking in the bottom 10 in the NBA in offensive rating.
On the other hand, Milwaukee relies heavily on Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. Despite winning the NBA Cup, the Bucks are still only +2800 points away from winning the Finals.
Which brings me back to Cleveland. With the East looking shaky overall, Cleveland could avoid a showdown with both New York and Boston until the Eastern Conference Finals (if those two teams stay in second and third place). This alone would improve the Cavaliers’ odds, as neither Boston nor New York can get ECF in this scenario.
Additionally, Cleveland is on a historic run. He has an insane +11.3 net rating this season, and could make a strong push for the best record in NBA history, currently held by the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors (they went 73-9).
Cleveland has the No. 1 offense in the NBA, and has spent most of the season without one of its regular starters — sharpshooter Max Strus — as he missed the start of the season with an ankle injury. Strus was huge in Wednesday’s win over OKC, knocking down 5 of 6 shots from beyond the arc, finishing with 17 points.
Continuity was key for the Cavaliers, as they extended the contracts of Mitchell, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley this offseason. New coach Kenny Atkinson has transformed this offense, and even with concerns about the Cavaliers’ wing depth, he has knocked off New York, Boston and OKC in games this season.
The Cavaliers may turn into pumpkins when the playoffs roll around, but their 32-4 start to the regular season is no fluke. If Cleveland maintains the top seed in the East, its chances should be much better to win the title.
Even with Wednesday’s loss, OKC has a six-game lead over the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and is the favorite to reach the NBA Finals this season.
OKC sits at +275 in the latest odds while the next closest Western Conference teams (Denver at +1300 and Dallas at +1400) have clear disadvantages at this point in the season.
Denver struggled in minutes other than Nikola Jokic (as usual) and its depth was questionable early in the season. Not only that, but Denver is only 19th in defensive rating, which may not be good enough to make it past the challenge of the Western Conference.
On the other hand, Dallas is currently missing both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, which puts them in a precarious position when it comes to the Western Conference standings. Dallas snapped a five-game skid on Tuesday, but has already dropped to the No. 5 seed in the West since Doncic went down on Christmas.
Young teams like Memphis and Houston currently hold the No. 2 (Houston) and No. 3 (Memphis) seeds in the West, but oddsmakers aren’t confident they’ll win it all based on their latest odds.
OKC is ahead of the Cavs in net rating this season (+11.6) and has the best defensive rating in the NBA by nearly three points per 100 possessions. Not only that, but the Thunder did most of this without superstar Chet Holmgren, who appeared in just 10 games in the 2024-25 season due to a broken hip. He and offseason signing Isaiah Hartenstein have yet to play in a game together this season.
There’s not much value in betting on the Thunder at this level, but they are the best team in the West and a loss to Cleveland on Wednesday won’t change that.
Odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.
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