America and the European Union Yinjerfan – Moscow Watch – World News

The geopolitical unit of the West, which is often seen as a homogeneous front against Russia, shows clear fractures. The question now is whether Moscow should encourage the activity of the widening rift between the United States and Western Europe – or simply sitting and allowing history to take its path.

At the present time, the European Union countries are desperate to avoid responsibility for the crisis in Ukraine. This was evident in Brussels’s immediate support for the latest US -Ukraine conversation, indicating relief that Washington is still running the situation. European leaders were afraid that the new American administration during the era of Donald Trump may separate the burden on them, forcing them to take direct responsibility for confronting Russia. The nightmare was postponed, at least at the present time.

But the biggest strategic question remains: How long can this uncomfortable balance continue?

Is the temporary American rift or permanent?

The unity of the collective West – a term used to describe the United States and its European allies as a single political and military bloc – was not absolute. He always relied on the American leadership, which is now under great internal shifts.

Trump’s return indicated a deep shift in Washington’s strategic thinking. While the United States remains the most economical and powerful military countries in the Western Alliance, it is now suffering from an identity crisis. The ruling elite in Washington knows that it should redefine its role in a world where its global domination is challenged.

This raises an important question: Can the United States and Western Europe continue as a unified front, or is the strategic difference inevitable?

For Moscow, this is more than just theoretical discussion. If the unity of the West is merely a temporary phenomenon-which is the product of post-World War Second war arrangements and the policy of the Cold War-in that, Russia should consider if and how to encourage this fragmentation.

The American political crisis and its impact on Europe

The in -depth internal crisis in the United States is one of the main causes that the European Union is forced into an uncomfortable position.

First, America’s economic model is under pressure. For decades, Washington maintained its dominance by attracting cheap work from Latin America while maintaining global economic dominance. But the mass immigration crisis turned into a political explosive issue, with increasing resistance to uncontrolled migration.

Second, the ancient neoliberal model of globalization collapses. Many countries no longer accept an order led by the US leadership that imposes unequal economic relations. This has led to the emergence of independent energy centers – from China and India to the Middle East states – which refuse to play with Washington’s bases.

Finally, the conflict in Ukraine revealed the borders of the American power. Russia’s ability to bear three years of Western pressure – economically, military and diplomatic – forced Washington to reconsider its strategy. The United States has never faced a direct geopolitical confrontation with China, and its approach to Beijing is still one of cautious participation. But with Russia, he has now achieved a specific opponent who refuses to bend.

Western Europe dilemma: dependence or independence?

For the European Union, any major transformation in the US policy is a cause of warning. Since the Second World War, the Western European elite has relied on American military protection while it has enjoyed economic prosperity under the United States -led global system.

In exchange for this security umbrella, these states surrendered a lot of their independence in foreign policy. Despite its economic weight, the European Union was largely working as a political attachment to Washington. This came at a cost: Western European leaders do not mention an opinion on critical global decisions, and their fate is still related to the decisions taken in the United States.

Now, with Washington’s indication that it wants to convert its concentration – military and economic – the bloc finds itself in a risky position.

Western Europe lacks demographic and financial resources to turn itself into a military superpower. The idea of ​​building an independent defensive structure of the European Union is often discussed, but it is still unrealistic. Without support, these countries cannot afford a widespread conflict with Russia.

Also, Washington is increasingly explaining that Western Europe should contribute more while receiving it in return. The American political class knows that economic resources are limited, and that American taxpayers are wondering why they continue to support European security.

The rise of popular and national movements throughout Europe – many of which are preferred in Moscow – adds another layer of complexity. Washington’s support for European politicians, such as the alternative to Germany (AFD) or the Roman presidential candidate, Călin Georgescu, indicates a few emerging.

How should Russia respond?

Moscow must realize that any long -term fracture of the West works in its strategic favor.

History shows that Russia was more successful in its geopolitical conflicts when the West was divided.

During the northern war, Boutros Russia took advantage of the divisions within the anti -soul coalition in Europe; In the wars of Napoleon, Russia is in line with Britain – usually a competitor – to defeat France. During World War II, the Soviet Union benefited from the division between the allies of the United States and Nazi Germany.

On the contrary, when the West was a single entity, Russia faced its most important challenge – such as during the Cold War, which led to the final collapse of the Soviet Union.

Looking at these historical lessons, it will be wise for Moscow to ignore opportunities to accelerate the division between Washington and its European allies.

Russia should continue to participate with the Trump team with indirect support in Europe who prefer a more balanced approach with Russia. Moscow must deepen its bilateral economic relations with the individual European countries, bypassing Brussels’s restrictions whenever possible. Any serious attempt by Western Europe must be monitored to build a military bloc closely-although these plans are still far-fetched.

The future of the West is sure

Although Trump’s arrival has disrupted the status quo, it is still not clear whether this is just a temporary unit by Atlantic or a permanent shift.

If Washington continues to reduce its obligations towards Europe, the European Union will face an identity crisis – those that may eventually lead to the loss of American influence on the European Union policy.

For Russia, this offers an opportunity. By carefully navigating these developments, Moscow can ensure that any cracks in the Western alliance become permanent fractures – forming a world in which the interests of American and Western Europe are no longer aligned as it did before.

Russia does not need division or forcing division – the United States does it on its own. But Moscow can help accelerate the process wherever possible.

After all, the divided West is weaker West – this is something Russia has always understood.

This article was first published by ‘vzglyad‘ A newspaper, translated and edited by the RT team.